I don’t like to play poker much. I mean, I do, so long as I’m not actually betting the rent check on a hand. I’ve dabbled on ポーカースターズ otherwise known as Poker Stars which was OK, the benefit of online gambling is that you do feel more in control of your losses, but I ideally like to play for Skittles, or my last can of diet soda. I’ll be fine then. But plunk down some real cash, even chump change, and I start folding faster than a master origami artist.
Why? Because I know I’m just good enough to get myself in trouble when it comes down to those close calls and reading the other players. That aside, poker can be incredibly frustrating. One of my old roommates spent a long while playing online poker. He read dozens of books on the subject and often spent evenings working a calculator to figure out the chances of particular hands popping up, and how those hands statistically related to any other hands any other player might hold at that moment. And, as he played in the living room on his laptop, I could always hear his victory yells or shrills of defeat from my bedroom. One pattern I saw (or heard) play out over and over was this: He would get a great pair of cards on the draw. Then he got every card he needed to set up the strongest hand possible in this turn. He’d bet and raise like a madman, certain of victory. Then the last card would fall and give another player (who once had the worst possible hand) the win. Much shrieking and decrying of the cruelty of the universe would ensue.
And this is how any of that ties into writing: Often times, I believe the publishing industry is like a poker game. It’s a subtle combination of skill, calculated odds, and blind luck. The skill is one of the few things we as writers have control over. We give ourselves the best chance possible by constantly trying to improve our prose, building better stories, designing a more detailed world, corkscrewing the perfect plot twist. Those are things we can affect. The calculated odds comes through what you and others do to push the story into the world, whether through your publisher’s marketing efforts, a book tour, great cover art, and so on. You do your best to set up the book itself for success.
The last one is what can really bite authors in the bum, so it seems. Blind luck. Bad luck, especially. (Don’t believe in luck? Then call it bad timing. God’s will. Whatever label sticks for you.) Your book comes out, and it gets hundreds of horrible reviews because all the critics spilled coffee in their laps on the way to work. Or your book is titled Cuddly-Wuddley Puppies and Why We Love Them, and a new scientific study comes out the day before that promotes the All New Anti-Puppy Diet. Or puppies try to pass a controversial bill in Congress and their ratings in the polls fall, or some other catastrophe, social movement, fad, etc. that makes people snub your book no matter how wonderful it is.
It’s easy to get bummed out realizing that you can do so much to set up what looks to be a surefire bestseller, only to have it knocked down by elements that are entirely out of your control and seem unfair. This brings me to several statements/opinions, which are worth what you paid for them. First, never wrap up your self-esteem as a writer in a single book or project. Recognize that these flubs happen, and will likely continue to happen at times, no matter how successful you become. Second, persevere and turn this uncontrollable series of events into a lesson for your next novel. Look at the mistakes that were made and improve on them. Look at the situations that tripped you up and prepare for them next time. In this way, you are doing your part as a writer to improve both your writing craft and biz skills, thus increasing your chances the next time around.
Oddly enough, it’s Harry Houdini, the legendary magician, who had a creed that fits well with this situation. He often quoted an old school song that goes like this:
“Keep working, tis wiser then waiting aside,
Or crying, or wailing and awaiting the tide,
In Life’s earnest battle those only prevail
Who daily march onward, and NEVER SAY FAIL.”
I see that smile.